The Long Haul Upgrade Cycle Is Long and Fragmented

"Autonomous trucks seem to be trailing other autonomous solutions... Dominated by small truckers today, the freight market is fragmented putting a brake on adoption cycles." - ARK

There are an estimated 1.2 million trucking companies in the U.S. Of that figure 97% operate 20 or fewer trucks while 90% operate less than 7. So we have a situation where there are hundreds of thousands of decision makers and the lifespan of a long-haul truck is 15 years.

That points to an upgrade cycle that is about double that of passenger vehicles, 6-8 years.

Given that we don't have any autonomous trucks road ready yet, this cycle seems to be 5+ years away before it even starts. Which means it would be likely to take another 10+ years after that to hit full swing.

The first real winner in this space will be the one to land a major like Walmart, who runs their own trucking fleet. Some 6,500 tractors and 60,000 trailers. There will likely be smaller wins with little trucking companies, but it’s not until we see an entire nationwide fleet convert to autonomy that the pendulum has swung past the tipping point of autonomous trucking.

Sidenote: Walmart has proven savvy with the TikTok deal and, maybe surprising to most people, their sustainability ideals line up with electric autonomy as a natural fit.

I know myself and everyone reading this are future tech people, but don’t sleep on Walmart. It’s one of those situations where they will go ignored because of the “Walmart is stodgy” stigma.